Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry by Unknown

Author:Unknown
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Routledge

Converting Patients to Revenue

Once the number of patients on product has been determined the forecaster must convert these patients to volume, prescription, revenue and net income forecasts (Figure 3.2). These conversion factors begin by converting patients to volume through a series of assumptions related to dosing, compliance and persistence (Figure 3.20).

If there are multiple dosing forms for the product the forecaster must apply the product mix assumptions at this point. For example, if there are two formulations in the market – a 50 mg and a 100 mg formulation – the forecaster must determine the number of patients on each formulation before proceeding with the compliance, persistence and pricing assumptions. In cases where products are titrated (that is, patients move through a series of dosing strengths until they reach a strength where the therapy is optimised) the forecaster must apply the titration assumptions – length of time on a given therapy before up- or down-titration occurs, and the final equilibrium mix of patients in each dosing strength.

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